If a decision keeps landing back on your desk, tell me what was decided, who was supposed to own the next move, and where it reopened.

What can the owner decide without additional approval? What information, budget, or access do they still need? What new fact would reasonably justify reopening the decision?

Bring the actual situation. We can look at what keeps sending the decision back uphill.

Some of the most important information that will change your life is information you do not know to look for. If something is outside your awareness, you cannot search for it, ask an expert about it, or even decide whether you disagree with it yet.

In this episode, I follow that thought through oral history, television, AOL, MapQuest, social media, algorithms, the way I have learned about my own body, and the way I homeschooled Destin. The tools changed, but the human impulse did not. We keep finding ways to move information beyond the person and place where it began.

This is not an argument that everything delivered by an algorithm is trustworthy. Judgment still matters. The part that fascinates me is the possibility that a question, interest, connection, or part of yourself can remain invisible until something places it inside your awareness.

Listen to The Observation Room: https://www.michellevaughn.co/podcast

Choose the Michelle Vaughn Co newsletters that fit you: https://www.michellevaughn.co/subscribe

Join the community: https://www.michellevaughn.co/community

A leadership message can sound clear in the room and still leave everyone with a different understanding of what happens next. Before an important message goes out, people need to know the decision, why it matters, what changes, what stays the same, who owns the next move, and when they will hear more. Use this check before and after a consequential message: • Can people state the decision in one sentence? • Do they understand why it matters now? • Can they separate what changes from what does not? • Do owners know their authority, action, and deadline? • Are open questions labeled with an owner and date? • Is the written record available? • Is follow-up scheduled? • Has shared understanding been tested rather than assumed? The complete checklist includes a worked example, a before-message review, and follow-through guidance: https://www.michellevaughn.co/p/leadership-communication-checklist Where does leadership communication most often break down in your experience: the decision, the ownership, the boundary, or the follow-up?

Michelle Vaughn CoLeadership Communication Checklist | The AdvisoryPrepare consequential leadership communication, clarify decisions and ownership, anticipate questions, and close the follow-through loop.

Customers can feel the difference between someone who is answering them and someone who owns what happens next. In this episode, Michelle looks at why customer confidence often changes when the CEO enters the conversation and what a company has to transfer as it grows: context, standards, judgment, decision authority, and a clear recovery path.

Using Chick-fil-A, Costco, customer-trust research, frontline-service studies, and evidence from AI-assisted customer support, Michelle explains how a founder's intent becomes something a team can actually carry. AI can help people reach account history, policies, and examples faster, but people still have to verify the information, interpret the situation, and own the decision.

If customers routinely need a senior leader before they believe an issue is handled, the useful question is where context gets lost, authority gets stuck, or ownership disappears.

Everyone wants a season of victory and success, but I think a season of struggle, losing, challenges, and getting tested can be awesome because it shows you that you’re built to do hard things. It prepares you for victory and prepares you better for success, so when that success comes, you have a chance to grab it, hold onto it, and multiply it.

I’ve learned to enjoy the idea of welcoming struggle, even welcoming pain, because that’s how you get better. I love my losses, and that doesn’t mean there aren’t days when I still feel like a failure or an imposter. There are. That mean voice in my brain still tells me I’ve made too many mistakes, made a fool of myself too many times, or gone the wrong direction too many times to turn around and try again. I just decided to tell that voice to shut up.

The day everything changed for me was the day I stopped letting my feelings change my movement. On the days I don’t feel like doing it, I do it anyway. When I don’t feel good enough, I still do it. When I think I’m not smart enough, hardworking enough, or lucky enough, I still do it. I don’t need to feel differently before I move differently.

My losses have turned me into who I am today, and I’m proud of who I am because I’ve been through it. I know I can get through it, and I know I can do hard things because I’ve already done things I never thought I could do.

Stop treating struggle like it’s a bad thing. Change your perspective on what it’s doing for you. It’s either going to control you, or you control you.

It’s the only way.

Three things today. That's it.

What are you grateful for?

Michelle's health routine includes walking, strength training, sleep, recovery, magnesium, creatine, red light, a vibration plate, pressotherapy, Epsom salt baths, food choices, alcohol awareness, and mental and emotional regulation. Her pressotherapy routine goes back years: she uses it every morning for one hour on both her arms and legs and personally associates it with managing inflammation and feeling better. She explains which practices form the foundation, what job each additional tool is supposed to do, and where a person can realistically begin without copying her whole routine.

In this episode, Michelle explains what she does, the plain-language mechanism behind each practice, how family history shaped the way she thinks about health, and why tools and experts should add to a person's understanding rather than replace their participation. The conversation connects health to agency, household stewardship, business, leadership, and the life the body is being asked to carry.

This is not medical advice. It is Michelle's experience, her decision process, and what she has learned by paying attention to her own body.

Before the day gets away from us, what are your three things today?

Let's do our three things for today. What are three things you're grateful for right now?

What are your three things today?

Mine will be in the comments. Add yours when you're ready.

July’s housing report moved in more than one direction. Permits increased from June, while starts and completions fell. That does not tell one household whether to buy, sell, refinance, or wait.

What decision are you trying to make around home or money right now, and what information would actually help you make it?

Today's Advisory looks at four signals before a business changes its plan: demand, cash, capacity, and commitments. Which one would materially change the next decision in your business right now—and what evidence would you need before you changed course?

Read the full issue: https://www.michellevaughn.co/p/latest-economic-data-business-review

We're back for day two. What are three things you're grateful for today?

You can list them without explaining them. Big or small, they count.

Every day, let's list three things we're grateful for. They can be big, small, serious, ordinary—whatever is true for you that day.

I'll add mine in the comments. Add yours below when you're ready.

What are your three things today?

We judge old decisions using information the person making them did not have.

In this episode, I start with UWM and Two Harbors, then follow the same pattern through business, politics, conspiracy theories, and some of the biggest decisions in my own life.

The outcome tells us what happened. It does not automatically tell us whether the original decision was reasonable based on the information available at the time. This episode is about what happens when the reality you get is not the reality you planned for—and who you become while living inside the version that actually happened.

Watch the full video on YouTube: https://youtu.be/nqX7rCYMefo

Subscribe to The Observation Room and find everything I’m building at michellevaughn.co.

Michelle Vaughn shares how AI became part of her everyday life and business—and why useful support is different from handing a tool authority it has not earned.

Dylan introduced Michelle to AI in 2022. Since then, she has used it for meals, nutrition and macros; moving and travel decisions; product research and comparisons; household and car questions; preparing for appointments and conversations; processing situations; and organizing her thinking.

Inside Michelle Vaughn Co, AI supports research, strategy, websites, forms, offers, newsletters, customer experiences, business systems, podcast distribution, finding opportunities, and reducing repetitive work. Michelle also discusses AI agents, the extra work they can create when they act incorrectly, and the boundaries that matter once a tool can take action.

The through line: use AI to prepare, organize, compare, and see new angles while keeping judgment, responsibility, and final authority human.

I know I’m going against the popular opinion, but I don’t think UWM is at the beginning of the end. I actually think we’re watching what leadership looks like when something goes very wrong and you still have to figure out what comes next.

UWM made a very expensive mistake on the Two Harbors deal. There’s no reason to pretend otherwise. They lost hundreds of millions of dollars on a hedge connected to the failed Two Harbors deal, in an already volatile economic environment. The stock responded terribly, and they suspended the dividend. Those are facts. I’m not trying to rewrite them into something prettier.

(A hedge is basically insurance against something moving the wrong way financially. In this case, UWM was trying to buy Two Harbors, which owned a huge portfolio of mortgage servicing rights. Those assets can change value pretty dramatically when interest rates move, so UWM put on a hedge to protect itself if rates moved against the value of what it expected to buy. The problem was that UWM didn’t end up getting Two Harbors, but the hedge was still there. So instead of having the Two Harbors assets on one side and the hedge helping balance the risk on the other, UWM was left with the hedge by itself. Rates moved the wrong way for that position, and what was supposed to help protect a much larger transaction ended up creating a massive loss.)

Basically, they bought the insurance for the house before they actually owned the house, didn’t get the house, and then the insurance itself became very expensive.

But this is where my interpretation starts to separate from a lot of what I’m reading.

I keep seeing the fact that they raised capital being used as more evidence that UWM is in trouble, and I guess I’m looking at it from almost the opposite direction. If you know you just took a huge loss, you’ve already spent five years operating in one of the worst mortgage markets we’ve seen in a long time, and you have the ability to put enough capital into the company that you don’t have to spend the next year worrying about the next problem, why wouldn’t you do that?

Mat said on the earnings call that Oaktree is putting in $1.5 billion and the Ishbia family is putting in another $500 million. The money is expensive. Oaktree is getting paid well for taking the risk. Of course they are. They aren’t a charity. I don’t think that makes the transaction bad by itself. It means UWM needed capital and Oaktree negotiated a return for providing it.

What stood out to me more was that Mat is putting his own family capital back into the company too. He could have protected his own money, hoped the market got better, and tried to stretch things out. Instead, he put another $500 million behind the company he built and brought in a very experienced institutional partner at the same time. I think that says something.

I also don’t understand why making sure one bad decision doesn’t turn into an existential problem is somehow being treated like proof that the company is already dying. Would it be better if they never lost the money? Obviously. Would it be better if they didn’t need expensive capital? Sure. But that isn’t where they are now. The decision in front of them now is what to do after the loss happened.

That’s the part I find more interesting.

There is no version of building a company this large where every decision works. There is no CEO who gets every market call right forever. Especially not in an industry that has been this volatile for this long. It’s been a long five years. I think sometimes we get so used to studying successful people after everything worked that we forget they were making decisions in real time with incomplete information too.

Leadership can’t only mean never getting anything wrong. At some point something is going to go wrong. Sometimes very wrong. Then you have to decide whether you hide from it, keep pretending it isn’t happening, or deal with what is actually in front of you.

From what I can see, UWM is dealing with it.

And this is really why I think they can come out stronger. If the numbers Mat gave on the call hold, UWM is coming out of this with substantially less leverage, more liquidity, a new institutional partner that understands the mortgage and servicing business, and a much more painful understanding of where their risk controls failed. None of that makes the loss worth it, but it does mean the company on the other side of this could actually be financially stronger and better protected than the company that walked into it.

They raised capital. They’re lowering leverage. They suspended the dividend. They’re paying down debt and MSR financing. They brought in an institutional partner that understands the mortgage and servicing business. Mat put more of his own money in. None of that guarantees anything, but it doesn’t look like someone who has decided the company is finished either.

And I think we’re losing sight of the actual business underneath the stock chart.

UWM still originated almost $40 billion in mortgages last quarter. The stock falling does not make the operating company disappear. It doesn’t erase the technology, the people, the broker relationships, the servicing business or the scale they have built.

The Broker Channel Still Matters

I also think we’re losing sight of something much bigger than UWM’s stock price, and that is the actual business model underneath all of this.

UWM didn’t build its position on nothing. It built infrastructure around the independent mortgage broker channel, and that channel continues to matter because competition matters to consumers.

A borrower can go directly to one lender and get that lender’s products and pricing, or work with an independent broker who can compare options across multiple lenders. An analysis of federal mortgage data found that borrowers using the wholesale broker channel saved an average of $10,662 over the life of their mortgage compared with borrowers using the retail channel. Government research has also repeatedly shown that shopping mortgage offers can save consumers thousands of dollars.

That’s the part I don’t think changes because UWM had one bad quarter.

Consumers still need mortgages. Brokers still give borrowers access to competition. And UWM still has one of the largest infrastructures in the country built specifically to serve that channel.

I still believe the broker model is better for consumers because competition is better for consumers. I believed that before this quarter and I still believe it now. One bad hedge does not suddenly make that mission wrong.

I think that’s probably the biggest difference between what I’m seeing and a lot of the commentary right now. People are looking at the loss and calling it failure. I’m looking at what happens after the loss and deciding whether I think the company still knows how to move forward.

Those are not the same question.

Could this get worse? Of course. Could I look back at this in a few years and realize I completely underestimated something? Absolutely. That’s what makes observing something while it’s actually happening interesting. Anybody can explain the obvious answer once we already know how the story ends.

But right now, I don’t see a company giving up. I see a company that got hit very hard, made an expensive mistake, and then raised enough capital to give itself room to keep playing the game.

So when I say I would still bet on UWM, I’m not only betting on a company recovering from a very expensive mistake. I still believe in the business underneath it and the market it was built to serve.

Maybe we spend too much time studying how successful people win and not enough time paying attention to what they do when they lose one.

I think this one is worth watching.

And yes, I would still bet on Mat Ishbia and UWM.

When a decision feels impossible, the answer may not be missing. It may be crowded by other people’s opinions, old identities, fear, protection, and the pressure to explain.

In Episode 3 of The Observation Room, Michelle Vaughn explores how to create enough quiet to hear what you may already know—without giving away your authority or pretending uncertainty has disappeared.

In this episode:

• Why another opinion can make a decision louder

• The difference between perspective and handing away authority

• When explaining becomes negotiation

• Confusion versus inconvenience

• Why survival strategies deserve gratitude, not permanent authority

• Four questions for clearing the room around a decision

• Confidence without certainty

Chapters
00:00 The polished first answer
02:00 Why advice can make a decision louder
02:28 What if the answer is crowded?
03:59 Perspective versus giving away authority
05:58 The silence where the real conversation begins
07:48 When explaining becomes negotiation
09:25 Confusion versus inconvenience
10:55 What are you trying to protect?
11:50 Survival strategies and permanent authority
13:37 When protection becomes a prison
15:53 Four questions for clearing the room
18:50 Two crowded-decision examples
22:12 Confidence without certainty
24:21 A room quiet enough to hear yourself

Explore Michelle Vaughn Co
Website
Advisory
Podcast

Listen to The Observation Room
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Pocket Casts
Overcast
iHeartRadio
Amazon Music
TuneIn

Subscribe and share this episode with someone who may need a little more room and a little less noise.

Today, Michelle Vaughn Co officially opened its doors.

The website is live. The first newsletter has gone out. The podcast and YouTube are up. And now this community is open for the conversations that continue after an episode, a letter, or an idea lands.

Some of you know me through business. Some through mortgage, leadership, writing, home, money, creativity, or life itself. You do not have to fit neatly into one category here. That is the point.

Come in and introduce yourself below. Tell us who you are, where you are joining from, and what brought you into the room—or simply say hello.

I’m very glad you’re here.

This is the place where everybody can come in, look around, introduce themselves, ask a question, share something they are working through, or continue a conversation that started somewhere else in Michelle Vaughn Co.

Some conversations will begin with the podcast. Some may come from one of the letters. Sometimes I may post something I noticed that does not belong neatly inside business, home and money, Love Notes, or The Observation Room. That can live here too.

You do not need to have the perfect question, and you do not need to turn your introduction into a résumé. You can simply tell us who you are, where you are joining from, what part of life or work you are in right now, and what brought you here.

This community has different rooms because people come to me for different things, but you do not have to figure everything out the first day. Start here. Join the conversations that interest you. Ask what you need to ask. Read quietly for a while if that is more your speed.

Nobody is taking attendance.

I am glad you are here.

The Advisory page is the home base for my business and leadership work. It brings together the letters, resources, ways to work with me, and the place to begin when you need outside perspective. Read there when you want the full information. Then come back here when you want to ask a question, share what you are building, or continue the conversation. Visit The Advisory: https://www.michellevaughn.co/advisory

www.michellevaughn.co